All of a sudden, the Electoral College - and small states - are in real danger

Tuesday's election results could have consequences far beyond which party controls Congress or individual state capitols. They could also fundamentally change the core of the Republic and the way we elect presidents.

For decades, supporters of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact have been working to change how states award their presidential electoral votes. They are approaching a critical threshold.

Already, 18 states and the District of Columbia, representing 222 electoral votes, have joined the compact. They need just 48 more electoral votes to activate the agreement. For the record, Idaho, Montana and Wyoming have not. Washington state has.

How does the National Popular Vote Compact work? States agree to give their electoral college votes to whoever wins the national popular vote. That means a candidate could win 100% of the vote in one state, but the state would simply give its electoral college votes to someone else.

Once thought of as a folly with no chance of becoming activated, it now seems like a real possibility. The results of Tuesday's state legislative and gubernatorial elections matter because there are now one-party trifectas in states that haven't adopted this scheme. They could end up passing legislation to join the compact as soon as January.

And that makes this an immediate issue for Americans who care about the future of our constitutional system, and those in smaller states.

Here's why.

We don't hold one national election for president. We hold 50 separate state elections.

That isn't an accident. It reflects the constitutional structure established by our Founders.

The United States is a federal republic. Our states are not simply administrative districts of a national government. They have their own constitutional responsibilities, and one of those responsibilities is determining how presidential electors are selected.

The Electoral College recognizes that federal structure.

Supporters of the National Popular Vote argue that it would make every individual vote count equally toward choosing the president. But it also likely means presidential candidates would only campaign in the largest areas. Any chance of seeing a candidate in Montana, for example, would go out the window. Smaller states would be shut out of the process.

There is also real concern about how a national popular vote would work in the case of a close election. Instead of lawsuits and vote-finding missions in one state, the mess would likely extend from sea to shining sea as political parties hunt for votes - and file lawsuits - in their preferred areas in every state.

But the National Popular Vote Compact also raises serious constitutional questions that its supporters cannot simply dismiss.

First, there's the Constitution's Compact Clause. Article I, Section 10 restricts states from entering into certain agreements with one another without congressional consent. Supreme Court precedent has issued exceptions to this in the case of "ordinary" agreements. But this would hardly be ordinary. Supporters know they cannot change the Electoral College constitutionally, so they are simply trying to bypass it.

This leads to the second issue, can the Constitution be rewritten without amending it? It is true that Article II gives state legislatures broad authority to determine how their electors are appointed (consider allocations via congressional district winners), but allocating votes to a candidate who didn't win a state or district may go too far for justices.

Finally, a national popular vote could incentivize states to loosen voting requirements to help candidates run up the score. After all, elections are run by states under state rules.

This is no longer a question for political science lectures, it is a clear and present danger to our Constitutional Republic. Over the next 90 days, just a handful of states could fundamentally alter the way we elect presidents, bypassing the Constitution and forever leaving small states behind, just in time for the 2028 election.

We better pay attention.