Fact Check: Washington's income tax initiative doesn't "cut" government programs

Washington voters will decide this November whether to keep the state's new 9.9% income tax.

Politicians and the media are claiming approval of Initiative 645 will "cut funding" for public schools, higher education and health care. There's only one problem - it's not true.

Why? Because there's nothing to cut. Washington doesn't collect a dime of income tax revenue until 2029. It's not possible to cut something that doesn't exist.

Despite this, Washington officials put their thumbs on the scale and included a ballot impact statement that misleads voters into thinking "cuts" are imminent. By doing so, they changed the potential outcome of the ballot measure by a whopping 18 points according to recent polling.

Politicians and political activists working for or against ballot measures is not a surprise.

The media, however, is a different story. Too many are simply repeating the talking point.

The Spokesman-Review, for example, recently told readers that repealing Washington's new income tax “would cut funding for K-12 education and healthcare, among other state services.”

Other media outlets are repeating the same thing.

But you can't cut money the government isn't collecting.

What I-645 would do is eliminate a future tax and therefore reduce projected future revenue compared with the state's current forecast. The Washington Research Council estimates the initiative would shave forecasted revenues by $3.108 billion in 2027–29 and $8.324 billion in 2029–31.

A forecast, however, is not a cut. And even if it were, I-645 doesn't tell lawmakers to reduce K-12 spending, or health care spending, or any other spending.

Likewise, there's no guarantee future income tax revenues would actually be spent on the programs activists now say are at risk.

Journalists routinely scrutinize political claims, and this should be no different.

Rather than explaining that the state is talking about future projected revenue from a tax that hasn't taken effect, news stories can leave readers with the impression that I-645 removes money already being spent.

It doesn't.

And the distinction is especially important because the state's disclosure itself has been challenged in court. The Washington Supreme Court ultimately split 4-4 on an emergency request to keep the statement off the ballot, meaning the request failed and the disclosure remained.

In other words, this isn't some obscure semantic complaint that reporters have no reason to know about.

The bottom line is this: Washington is not currently collecting this income tax. No current programs depend on its revenue. And the initiative does not direct the legislature to cut spending.

Voters deserve to know the truth.