Parental choice surge in Idaho: Trends and projections on state's new tax credit program

New figures from the Idaho State Tax Commission show Idaho families are moving quickly to take advantage of the state’s new parental choice tax credit — and early application volume suggests demand will be strong throughout the open enrollment period.

The early data:

• 4,650 total family applications submitted

• 7,300+ total students included in those applications

• That’s an average of ~1.6 students per family (about 1.57)

• The program has attracted nearly 1,000 family applications per day so far (~930/day)

• Program cap: $50 million

• If every student applied for the full $5,000 credit, these applications would represent $36.5 million — meaning about 73% of the full program cap has already been “spoken for” in just five days

  • Important note: That is a maximum exposure estimate. Not every family will claim the full $5,000, since many won’t have eligible expenses totaling that amount. Likewise, the amount of special ed students who qualify for up to $7,500, is not yet known.

The application window remains open until March 15 - a total of 60 days.

Projections if the current pace continues through March 15:

Based on the first five days of activity (930 families/day, totaling 1,460 students/day):

• Projected total families: 54,870

• Projected total students: 86,140

  
  

As it’s common to see a surge at launch followed by a decline, here are projections assuming the pace drops:

If the pace is cut in half (~465 families/day, ~730 students/day):

• Projected total families: 27,435

• Projected total students: 43,070

  
  

If the pace is cut to a quarter of the current trend (~233 families/day, ~365 students/day):

• Projected total families: 13,718

• Projected total students: 21,535

  
  

Five days in, Idaho’s parental choice tax credit is clearly meeting immediate demand. Even under slower-growth projections, thousands of families appear poised to participate before the March 15 deadline — underscoring that school choice isn’t a niche concept in Idaho, but a mainstream need for families across the state.