Parental choice surge in Idaho: Trends and projections on state's new tax credit program
- Chris Cargill
- 2 days ago
- 2 min read
New figures from the Idaho State Tax Commission show Idaho families are moving quickly to take advantage of the state’s new parental choice tax credit — and early application volume suggests demand will be strong throughout the open enrollment period.
The early data:
4,650 total family applications submitted
7,300+ total students included in those applications
That’s an average of ~1.6 students per family (about 1.57)
The program has attracted nearly 1,000 family applications per day so far (~930/day)
Program cap: $50 million
If every student applied for the full $5,000 credit, these applications would represent $36.5 million — meaning about 73% of the full program cap has already been “spoken for” in just five days
Important note: That is a maximum exposure estimate. Not every family will claim the full $5,000, since many won’t have eligible expenses totaling that amount. Likewise, the amount of special ed students who qualify for up to $7,500, is not yet known.
The application window remains open until March 15 - a total of 60 days.
Projections if the current pace continues through March 15:
Based on the first five days of activity (930 families/day, totaling 1,460 students/day):
Projected total families: 54,870
Projected total students: 86,140
As it’s common to see a surge at launch followed by a decline, here are projections assuming the pace drops:
If the pace is cut in half (~465 families/day, ~730 students/day):
Projected total families: 27,435
Projected total students: 43,070
If the pace is cut to a quarter of the current trend (~233 families/day, ~365 students/day):
Projected total families: 13,718
Projected total students: 21,535
Five days in, Idaho’s parental choice tax credit is clearly meeting immediate demand. Even under slower-growth projections, thousands of families appear poised to participate before the March 15 deadline — underscoring that school choice isn’t a niche concept in Idaho, but a mainstream need for families across the state.
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