Idaho's parental choice tax credit signups continue at impressive pace

Nineteen days into Idaho’s new parental choice tax credit, we’re starting to get a solid, grounded picture of how families are responding — and the takeaway is pretty simple: interest is real, steady, and coming from all across the state.

Since applications opened on January 15, 5,056 families have applied for the credit, covering 9,341 students. That’s nearly three weeks of data, which gives us something much more useful than opening-day excitement alone: an actual pace.

Here’s what those numbers look like when you spread them out:

• 5,056 family applications

• 9,341 students

• About 1.85 students per family

• A steady pace of roughly:

  • 266 families per day

  • 492 students per day

    
    

This isn’t a rush driven by one headline or a single deadline reminder. It’s a consistent stream of families deciding the program is worth engaging with.

The application window stays open until March 15. With 19 days already behind us, that means there are 40 days still to go.

So instead of guessing wildly about what might happen, the most straightforward approach is to ask: What happens if the pace we’ve already seen continues — or slows?

Using the real-world pace from the first 19 days, here’s what participation could look like by the time the window closes.

If the current pace continues for the remaining 40 days:

• ~15,700 families total

• ~29,000 students total

If participation slows to about half the current pace:

• ~10,400 families total

• ~19,200 students total

  
  

If participation slows to a quarter of the current pace:

• ~7,700 families total

• ~14,300 students total

  
  

Even the most conservative scenario still points to thousands of Idaho families choosing to participate.

The tax credit is capped at $50 million statewide, with up to $5,000 available for most students and $7,500 available for those with special needs.

If every student currently listed qualified for the full amount, today’s applications would represent about $46.7 million in maximum possible credits. That’s not a forecast — many families won’t claim the full amount — but it does underline how quickly interest has shown up.

For years, conversations about school choice have revolved around what parents might do if given more flexibility. Now we’re seeing what parents actually do when a new option is available.

Nineteen days in, this doesn’t look like a niche program or a fringe idea. It looks like something a meaningful number of Idaho families see as useful — whether they’re looking for tutoring help, curriculum options, private schooling support, or a mix of all three.

There are still 40 days left in the application window, and the final numbers will keep evolving. But the direction is already clear: families are engaged, and they’re continuing to show up.